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Frank Bernheisel: The View From Here
Frank Bernheisel
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Frank Bernheisel
Posted 08.15.15
Just Outside Washington

FRANK BERNHEISEL

Bomb Iran?

According to the Washington Institute, Iran's current lead time to develop a nuclear bomb, Breakout Time, is three months (1). And it could be less. Also, Iran has developed the Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missile, which has a range of 1,200 miles, which is the distance from Tehran to Tel Aviv.

Further, we know that Iran worked on weaponization for nuclear technology before the U.S. intelligence community said that effort had been stopped. (2) Finally, Iran has agreed with the U.S. and five other countries, to limit Iran's nuclear program and submit to international inspections.

That is not enough for some.

A number of members of the Grand Old Party and Senator Schumer are saying exactly that; they want more concessions from Iran. Fat chance! If the agreement is not enough, there are three alternatives: Status Quo; Disintegration of Sanctions; War!

But wait, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the one who is so concerned about the existential threat to Israel that he came to the U.S just to influence the U.S. Congress against the agreement. He may have real cause for concern; Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei recently authored a new book titled Palestine, which makes some controversial statements about the Jewish people, while outlining a plan to destroy the nation of Israel.

Israel has military superiority in the Middle East and Israel knows where the facilities are; they are shown on the map. Why does Netanyahu keep asking the U.S. to fight their battles? Why doesn't Israel bomb Iran's nuclear facilities like they did Syria's?

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Because, the Israelis can't do it; they do not have the plane or missile capability. (3) But, assuming that they did and were successful, Robert Gates stated that an Israeli strike "would only delay the Iranian plans by one to three years, while unifying the Iranian people to be forever embittered against the attacker" (4). This estimate is confirmed in 2012 by Dr. Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project at the Federation of American Scientists.

So, that leaves the U.S., we have the capability and the attack would delay an Iranian bomb by only one to three years, as Gates said. This is because Iran has the scientists, engineers, and technicians to reproduce what was bombed.

So the obvious thing to do then would be to bomb them again, and again, until they get the message. After that they would, of course, be our friend and stop all terrorist activity and happily escort shipping and U.S. Navy ships in the Straits of Hormouse.

Some of the "experts" advocating the bombing or war strategy with Iran are the same "experts" that advocated invading Iraq. That definitely eliminated Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction; so it should work in Iran, right? R-r-r-i-ight.

Iran has almost four times the land area of Iraq and over twice the population. The U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003 with over 250,000 soldiers resulting in over 5,000 killed and a cost of $3 Trillion [5]. And we are still there. So do the math.

We Americans cannot let Benjamin Netanyahu, his friends, and the American war hawks push us into war with Iran. Agreement first; war is a last resort.

[1] http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/irans-nuclear-breakout-time-a-fact-sheet.

[2] Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities, National Intelligence Estimate, November 2007.

[3] Pages 189-195, Unthinkable, Iran, the Bomb and American Strategy; Kenneth M. Pollack.

[4] Around the World, Distress over Iran, New York Times, November 28, 2010.

[5] The Three Trillion Dollar War; Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes of Harvard University, 2007

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